By Teja Adarsh Dodda

As nearly half of the world’s population prepares to vote to elect their leaders, 2024 is by far the biggest year in modern electoral history.  Four of the world’s five largest democracies, namely India, USA, Indonesia, and Pakistan are expected to elect their leaders this year. The population of these countries alone amounts to about 28% of the world and these are far from the only ones that can have significant consequences. This includes some mind-boggling fixtures like the largest democratic exercise in world history (the Indian election), the largest single-day election (the Indonesian election), a direct trans-national election (the European Union election), and many more.

2024 is also a critical election year for India not just because of its elections but because almost all of the Indian sub-continent (except Nepal) is going to the polls to elect their leaders.  The impact of the Maldivian, Bangladeshi, and Pakistani polls is already being felt across the subcontinent.

Elections in Asia

The Maldivian polls turned more heads than one could have imagined as the pro-China (People’s National Congress) and pro-India (Maldivian Democratic Party) parties had a face-off, which ended with a win for Mohammed Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (‘PNC’) party. The winning party is openly against Indian involvement in the island nation, and the changes are already in effect as Indian troops already asked to withdraw and a row was caused over a Maldivian minister’s tweet on Indian tourists in the country.

The elections in Bangladesh were seen by most as a sham as the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (‘BNP’), has boycotted the election owing to a crackdown on political dissent by the ruling Awami League, led by Prime Minister (‘PM’) Sheikh Hasina (seeking her fifth-consecutive term in office and did end up securing it). Given how these elections were conducted, the results of the election have been subject to international criticism- with the USA and many Western countries and organisations like the UN voicing their concerns over the outcome.

Pakistan has just finished their national election, which is subject to scrutiny as the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (‘PTI’), a political party led by the former PM Imran Khan (arrested and prosecuted for many alleged corruption charges) was abolished from running in the election. As a result of the abolition, the former PM Nawaz Sharif (favoured by the military) was seen as the front-runner. However, the election results proved this assumption as incorrect. The PTI-backed independent candidates have won 92 of the 266 elected seats in the Parliament. Shehbaz Sharif (brother of Nawaz Sharif) of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), backed by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party was declared as the PM due to the Pakistani National Assembly’s rule of allocating the remaining 100 seats by proportional representation for women and non-Muslims only to registered parties, effectively taking out the PTI from the running. All of this might be for nothing as the Supreme Court is hearing petitions to declare the results null and void due to allegations of poll rigging and violence. Currently, the PTI is in a rush to make all their members join a right-wing fringe party called Sunni Ittehad Council (‘SIC’) to lay their claim on the reserved seats in the National Assembly and prevent the ruling coalition from getting a 2/3rd majority. However, it doesn't seem to be working as the Election Commission gave a 4-1 judgement against this attempt.

The Sri Lankan elections are also scheduled for this year, the first regular one after the huge economic crisis that led to the ouster of the Rajapaksa political dynasty. With chances of the polls being delayed, it is yet to be seen if the current President Ranil Wickremesinghe will contest the election. Bhutan’s elections were extremely surprising as its two main parties in the Assembly failed to even move past the first round, leading to an entirely new National Assembly with the Tshering Tobgay-led People’s Democratic Party winning the majority.

The Indonesian election is expected to be a win for Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of the hugely popular current president Joko Widodo. However, the margin of this win is surprising as Subianto (who is the former son-in-law of dictator Suharto) is expected to win more than 60% of the vote, with the second position taken by Anies Beswadan (getting nearly 22% of the vote). These poll numbers, however, are projections and the official results may take more than a month to arrive.

Other important electoral battles include, Taiwan’s presidential race, which concluded with Tsai Ing-Wen, the Pro-Independence leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, securing victory despite Chinese warnings. In South Africa, projections hint at a historic moment: Mandela's African National Congress, for the first time in the post-apartheid era, is anticipated to garner less than 50% of the votes. This points to a rising anti-incumbency sentiment amongst the public and the waning effect of the ANC being rewarded for the Anti-Apartheid movement. Meanwhile, Mexico anticipated potentially groundbreaking change with the likely emergence of its first female president from among the leading candidates. Russia and Ukraine both faced electoral events, though with different expectations. In Russia, the reelection of Vladimir Putin seemed assured, raising questions about public sentiment amid ongoing conflicts. In Ukraine, the reelection of Volodymyr Zelensky appeared probable, contingent upon the feasibility of conducting elections amidst precarious circumstances.

The US Elections

Outside the sub-continent and Asia, the most talked about election is the US Presidential election. The election is slated to be held in November and is pre-empted to be a repeat of the 2020 election, with President Joe Biden competing against former President Donald Trump. This election is of high importance as it is seen to be the test of popularity for the Make America Great Again (‘MAGA’) wing of the Republican party led by former President Donald Trump, especially after the January 6 2021 attacks on the US Capitol by its supporters, and after President Trump became the first former President to be criminally prosecuted with as many as 91 indictments against him currently. The criminal antecedents of former President Trump, coupled with concerns of age over their oldest President in US history, President Biden, has led to many seeking alternatives to these unpopular candidates.

Elections in the European Union and the UK

The UK and the EU are expected to go to elections this year. While the dates have not been locked down for the UK elections yet, the polls are not at all in favour of the ruling Conservative (‘Tory’) party, which has been occupying the PM seat since 2010. With its 3rd PM in this term (in the form of PM Rishi Sunak) along with the country’s shortest PM stint ever (50 days) in the form of Liz Truss, a turbulent time has been commonplace across the UK due to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. The Labour party, led by Kier Starmer is expected to cruise to victory as the Tories are on course for a disastrous election as the ultra-right-wing Reform UK (‘Brexit party’) becomes more popular amongst the right-wing voters. The EU election is unique, and stands out as the only modern election where citizens of multiple countries vote, the results are expected to be interesting as many right-wing parties have become increasingly popular across countries like The Netherlands and Spain etc.

The Indian Election

Lastly, the world’s largest voter exercise, the Indian election is expected to be held between March-June this year. The multi-month lasting polls are slated to be another win for the PM Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (‘BJP’) as the PM remains as the most popular global leaders. This is becoming more apparent by the day as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (‘INDIA’) bloc led by the Indian National Congress (‘INC’) has more fissures in it by the day with Nitish Kumar (the Chief Minister of Bihar), who was expected to be convener of the alliance, has returned to the BJP fold and regional alliances and seat-sharing negotiations falter, especially with the Aam Aadmi Party (‘AAP’) and the Trinamool Congress Party (‘TMC’). It is yet to be seen if the Bharat Jodo (Nyay) Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi and the ongoing farmers protests will lead to any actual electoral losses for the BJP. This is all amidst concerns over erosion of parliamentary and democratic values since the Modi government has taken charge.

Conclusion

By the end of this year, the political dynamics of many countries are expected to be vastly different and only time can tell what this might mean for many international issues, especially security ones as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars don’t seem to have a foreseeable end.

Author Bio

Teja Adarsh Dodda is a final year student of B.A. (Hons) Public Policy at JSGP and is the President of the Policy Corner. They work as a researcher, mainly in the fields of intersectionality, urban governance, and mobility.